基于机器学习构建的7种不同模型预测重型颅脑损伤所致昏迷患者近期预后临床效能比较
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作者单位:

渭南市中心医院神经外科,陕西 渭南 714000

作者简介:

王小峰(1989—),男,硕士研究生,主治医师,研究方向为颅脑损伤、神经重症及神经内镜的基础与临床研究。Email:441975169@qq.com。

通信作者:

杜春亮(1980—),男,本科学历,副主任医师,研究方向为颅脑损伤及脑血管疾病的临床研究。Email:3024282536@qq.com。

基金项目:

陕西省渭南市首席行业(学科)专家基金项目;陕西省渭南市重点科技计划项目(2024-ZDYFJH-627)。


Comparison of the clinical efficacy of seven machine learning-based models for predicting short-term prognosis in comatose patients with severe traumatic brain injury
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Department of Neurosurgery, Weinan Central Hospital, Weinan, Shaanxi 714000, China

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨并构建最优的机器学习模型,以预测重型颅脑损伤昏迷患者的近期预后。方法 回顾性分析2022年1月1日—2024年12月1日收治的262例重型颅脑损伤昏迷患者。根据6个月随访时的格拉斯哥预后评分(GOS),将患者分为预后良好组(GOS≥4分,112例)和预后不良组(GOS≤3分,150例)。研究利用患者入院时的临床数据,分别采用逻辑回归(LR)、支持向量机(SVM)、多元自适应回归样条(MARS)、随机森林(RF)、K近邻(KNN)、极限梯度提升(XGB)和人工神经网络(ANN)共7种机器学习方法构建预测模型。通过10折交叉验证评估模型性能,并以受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)为主要指标,同时比较各模型的准确度、灵敏度和特异度。结果 在7种机器学习模型中,ANN模型的预测性能优于其他模型,其AUC值为0.905。其余模型的AUC为0.581~0.760。在准确度、灵敏度和特异度方面,ANN也表现最佳。进一步验证显示,该ANN模型在训练集和测试集中的损失函数、均方差和精确度在100次迭代中趋势一致,表明模型稳定可靠。影响预后的关键因素分析显示,格拉斯哥昏迷评分(GCS)、脑电双频指数(BIS)和血氧分压(PO2)是模型中最重要的预测因子。结论 基于ANN算法构建的预测模型对重型颅脑损伤昏迷患者的近期预后具有良好的预测能力,性能优于传统机器学习模型,可为临床判断病情和预后提供有价值的参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To develop and identify the optimal machine learning model for predicting the short-term prognosis of comatose patients with severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 262 comatose patients with sTBI admitted between January 1, 2022, and December 1, 2024. Based on the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score at the 6-month follow-up, patients were divided into a favorable prognosis group (GOS≥4, n=112) and an unfavorable prognosis group (GOS ≤3, n=150). Prediction models were constructed using clinical data collected at admission with seven machine learning algorithms: logistic regression, support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network (ANN). Model performance was evaluated via 10-fold cross-validation, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) serving as the primary evaluation metric. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were also compared.Results Among the seven models, the ANN model demonstrated superior prediction performance, achieving an AUC of 0.905. The AUCs for the remaining models ranged from 0.581 to 0.760. The ANN model also exhibited the highest accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Further validation confirmed the stability of the ANN model, as indicated by the consistent trends of the loss function, mean squared error, and accuracy over 100 iterations on both the training and test sets. Analysis of key prognostic factors identified the Glasgow Coma Scale score, bispectral index, and partial pressure of oxygen as the most significant predictors in the model.Conclusions The prediction model based on the ANN algorithm demonstrates excellent performance in predicting the short-term prognosis of comatose patients with sTBI, outperforming other traditional machine learning models. This model may provide a valuable reference for clinical assessment of disease severity and prognosis.

    图1 不同机器学习模型ROC曲线Fig.1
    图2 训练集与测试集中损失函数与迭代次数趋势Fig.2
    图3 训练集与测试集中均方差与迭代次数趋势Fig.3
    图4 训练集与测试集中精确度与迭代次数趋势Fig.4
    图5 在ANN模型中权重占前10的影响因子架构图Fig.5
    表 1 两组基线资料情况Table 1
    表 2 不同机器学习算法构建的预测模型的效能情况Table 2
    表 3 不同机器学习模型通过测试集构建混淆矩阵 例Table 3
    表 4 国内外重型TBI患者预后预测模型研究概况及与本研究的对照Table 4
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王小峰,白西民,党俊涛,姚胜,王峰,杜春亮456.基于机器学习构建的7种不同模型预测重型颅脑损伤所致昏迷患者近期预后临床效能比较[J].国际神经病学神经外科学杂志,2026,(1):39-45111WANG Xiaofeng, BAI Ximin, DANG Juntao, YAO Sheng, WANG Feng, DU Chunliang222. Comparison of the clinical efficacy of seven machine learning-based models for predicting short-term prognosis in comatose patients with severe traumatic brain injury[J]. Journal of International Neurology and Neurosurgery,2026,(1):39-45

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-23
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-31
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